Predictions for 2020

Since I love being wrong, here are my predictions for 2020

Bitcoin continues to flounder

Over a decade since creation, Bitcoin has failed to establish itself as anything else besides an instrument of speculation. Much like the year of Linux on desktop, the Bitcoin as currency movement isn’t happening, and the HODLers, most scarily, appear to have accepted that. Without the idea of Bitcoin as currency,  the price of Bitcoin will continue to be volatile, but overall deflate, as HODLers move on to newer and shinier altcoins. Markets can stay irrational longer than the participants can stay solvent, and if the participants are irrational as well, that can’t end well. I’m bullish about the blockchain as a technology, but Bitcoin will end up as the Sega Dreamcast of crypto.

Prediction: Bitcoin slowly declines, spending the back-half of the year under $5,000

Trump impeachment trial goes along party lines, Trump remains president

As the country gets more and more tired of impeachment discussion, Pelosi will have to deliver impeachment articles prior to the main stretch of the general election. McConnell and the Senate Republicans will run a show trial that introduces no new info, and will call none of the relevant witnesses. The vote will go along party lines, and Trump will remain as president (and tweet about being vindicated shortly after)

Prediction: Trump remains president, partisan polarization continues to increase.

Shitty companies will continue to stink, as market regains sense of smell

You can go up on a steep hill and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark—that place where the wave of insane Softbank fueled valuations finally broke and rolled back. The collective group delusion is done, and 2020 will be the real year of reckoning, for WeWork, Uber, Lyft, Peleton, and other money burners. With no one else to pass the bag too, we’ll see these companies scale back from their grand ambitions and turn into more traditional, smaller, less AI gobbledy-gook versions of themselves. On the other hand, at-scale companies with strong unit economcs (e.g the Zooms of the world), will continue to see their stock price rise.

Prediction: WeWork continues to shed everything besides office space in already established cities, Zoom gets back up to $90/share, Uber ends under $20/share, Lyft ends under $35/share.

Snap continues to show up it’s haters.

It’s been a banner year for the Snap (and it’s stock price), and there’s no reason why it should stop. The worst has happened, Facebook did it’s best to copy all of Snap’s offerings, and Snap stays bloody but unbowed. What’s left is a company with a sticky userbase that has realized it’s not going to be bigger than Facebook, and has set out to build a really solid (dare I say profitable) company, that is finding it’s own (very large) niche.

Prediction: Snap ends the year at over $22/share.

Highly Contested Dem Primary leads to Biden nomination, Trump victory

An overly crowded Democratic field —  with low policy differentiation between candidates, refusals to withdraw, and Michael Bloomberg’s Super Tuesday strategy, leads to a drawn out primary slate, ending up with a battered moderate Dem nominee in Joe Biden. Sanders and Warren will get into each others way until it’s too late, Buttigeg will flame out nationally after good showings in the early states, Bloomberg will be too tough a pill to swallow, and the rest of the cast (Yang, Steyer, Gabbard, etc) won’t ever be serious contenders, thus leaving Joe Biden as the parties nominee. In the general election, Biden’s lack of true fans and unexciting campaigning won’t do enough to affect voter turnout, and Trump’s rabid base will give Trump a victory in 2020, likely while losing the popular vote again.

Prediction:  Trump beats Biden, loses popular vote.

Everyone on Twitter agrees that there are multiple valid ways to grow a company and that VC is neither the solution nor the devil

(just kidding)

Goals for 2020

Professional

Get Healthie to (redacted)MM in ARR

We’ll get there if we have a similar/slightly better year than last year. Will be a nice milestone, and a continuance of the good, solid growth we saw in 2019.

Maintain Healthie’s profitability in 2020

Being a profitable company lets us control our destiny, and build the company we want to build. Now that we have a history of turning a profit, we should maintain that, barring any large new growth channels that prove worth pouring a ton of money upfront in to.

Spend time identifying first Angel investment

I’ve been strongly considering doing this in the past year, and I think I’m finally in the position of being able to do this (Spearhead/Indie.VC Scout programs be damned), if I find a company that I really believe in. This goal was originally “Make first angel investment”, but don’t want to commit to doing so, in case I can’t find the right company.

Start sharing and building a record of my thoughts

I’ve gotten really into Fred Wilson, and other bloggers, this year, and want to start doing something similar on a small-scale myself — both for my own sake (it’s interesting to see my prior thoughts), but also to try to become a greater part of the  larger start-up community. Concretely, I want to blog twice a month, and tweet regularly, in order to end the year at over 1000 followers.

Fitness

Work out 4 times a week

8/2018 to 6/2019, I was regularly going to BJJ class 4 or more times a week. Since I got my Blue belt and moved out, it’s been a lot more hit or miss, and more like twice a week. I’ve been making a lot of excuses (some of them valid), as far as class times, and other engagements, but there’s no reason why I can’t fill it in with other excerise types like running.

Win a BJJ match

I went 0-3 in 3 competitions in 2018/2019. I want to do a round robin tournament (to ensure myself matches), and finally win one. I signed up for a Grappling Industries tournament on 1/18, so committing to doing that (185lbs with Gi for those curious).

Try striking

I have been doing grappling for over a decade now, but have never tried a striking sport. Want to check out a Muy Thai or a MMA gym, for a trial at the very least.

Personal

Travel somewhere I have not been to

I travelled a fair amount in 2019, but outside of NOLA (which was amazing), all were to locations I had already visited (LA, Vegas, Philly, Toronto). I want to take a trip in 2020 to somehwere that’s new and distinct (maybe Prague?)

Play a real gig

Overall, I played less guitar, wrote less music, and played less open mics in 2019 than in 2018. With all that said, guitar remained a major hobby for me, and I’d still would love to play an actual non open-mic show. I don’t care if it’s in front of two people, more important thing it’s part of a show that people are choosing to go to.

Have a winning poker year

In 2019, I played 28 live poker sessions (probably around 100 hours total), and finished the year a few hundred dollars down (barring any remaining sessions in the next couple days). I am unsure if I’ll hit a statistically meaningful sample size of poker playing in 2020, but regardless, would like to win money overall.

Read 30 books

After a year-long period where I didn’t read any  books, I started actively reading again in May, and have read 18 books in the past 6 months. I want to continue this pace, and read 30 books in 2020. I mostly read non-fiction, so if anyone has any recommendations, please let me know!

Continue surrounding myself with great people

2019 was a great year, in large part due to the people I surrounded myself with, from coworkers, to friends, to my roommates to my SO. I truly think you are the average of the five people you spend the most time with, and I want to continue to spend time with great people.