Predictions for 2020

Since I love being wrong, here are my predictions for 2020

Bitcoin continues to flounder

Over a decade since creation, Bitcoin has failed to establish itself as anything else besides an instrument of speculation. Much like the year of Linux on desktop, the Bitcoin as currency movement isn’t happening, and the HODLers, most scarily, appear to have accepted that. Without the idea of Bitcoin as currency,  the price of Bitcoin will continue to be volatile, but overall deflate, as HODLers move on to newer and shinier altcoins. Markets can stay irrational longer than the participants can stay solvent, and if the participants are irrational as well, that can’t end well. I’m bullish about the blockchain as a technology, but Bitcoin will end up as the Sega Dreamcast of crypto.

Prediction: Bitcoin slowly declines, spending the back-half of the year under $5,000

Trump impeachment trial goes along party lines, Trump remains president

As the country gets more and more tired of impeachment discussion, Pelosi will have to deliver impeachment articles prior to the main stretch of the general election. McConnell and the Senate Republicans will run a show trial that introduces no new info, and will call none of the relevant witnesses. The vote will go along party lines, and Trump will remain as president (and tweet about being vindicated shortly after)

Prediction: Trump remains president, partisan polarization continues to increase.

Shitty companies will continue to stink, as market regains sense of smell

You can go up on a steep hill and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark—that place where the wave of insane Softbank fueled valuations finally broke and rolled back. The collective group delusion is done, and 2020 will be the real year of reckoning, for WeWork, Uber, Lyft, Peleton, and other money burners. With no one else to pass the bag too, we’ll see these companies scale back from their grand ambitions and turn into more traditional, smaller, less AI gobbledy-gook versions of themselves. On the other hand, at-scale companies with strong unit economcs (e.g the Zooms of the world), will continue to see their stock price rise.

Prediction: WeWork continues to shed everything besides office space in already established cities, Zoom gets back up to $90/share, Uber ends under $20/share, Lyft ends under $35/share.

Snap continues to show up it’s haters.

It’s been a banner year for the Snap (and it’s stock price), and there’s no reason why it should stop. The worst has happened, Facebook did it’s best to copy all of Snap’s offerings, and Snap stays bloody but unbowed. What’s left is a company with a sticky userbase that has realized it’s not going to be bigger than Facebook, and has set out to build a really solid (dare I say profitable) company, that is finding it’s own (very large) niche.

Prediction: Snap ends the year at over $22/share.

Highly Contested Dem Primary leads to Biden nomination, Trump victory

An overly crowded Democratic field —  with low policy differentiation between candidates, refusals to withdraw, and Michael Bloomberg’s Super Tuesday strategy, leads to a drawn out primary slate, ending up with a battered moderate Dem nominee in Joe Biden. Sanders and Warren will get into each others way until it’s too late, Buttigeg will flame out nationally after good showings in the early states, Bloomberg will be too tough a pill to swallow, and the rest of the cast (Yang, Steyer, Gabbard, etc) won’t ever be serious contenders, thus leaving Joe Biden as the parties nominee. In the general election, Biden’s lack of true fans and unexciting campaigning won’t do enough to affect voter turnout, and Trump’s rabid base will give Trump a victory in 2020, likely while losing the popular vote again.

Prediction:  Trump beats Biden, loses popular vote.

Everyone on Twitter agrees that there are multiple valid ways to grow a company and that VC is neither the solution nor the devil

(just kidding)